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Is the blue belt drop-out rate truly a failure?

5 year(s) ago • 13410 views • 19 replies

Shane Van Meer
Shane Van Meer
Blue beltVerified7 forum posts680/200
5 year(s) ago
As I think about this topic, and not because I’m a blue belt that is considering quitting, I plan on the long haul...

To me a blue belt should be able to handle themselves against the untrained person within the real world. I am not a coach of jiu jitsu, nor am I the owner of a gym so I cannot understand the financial frustration from this aspect of being a coach.

To me, if you have a consistent amount of people coming into the gym, earning their blue belt and a high percentage leaving if you as a coach promoted them to blue belt knowing they could handle themselves in a majority of real world conflicts, shouldn’t this be viewed as a success from the coaches standpoint?

Maybe I am ignorant but I do read about the drop-out rates of blue belts more than I would like to, and not from the point of view that I could agree with. My point of view is “I just helped someone feel more confident in handling a situation that could arise in their day-to-day lives.”

I believe in training everyday, but not all goals will essentially align.

I am interested in responses and any possible scrutiny I may receive from this posting.
Karl Krebs
Karl Krebs
Brown beltPending40 forum posts0/700
5 year(s) ago
The blue belt dropout rate is a very complicated issue. Let's say it takes 2-3 years to get your blue belt and let's add an extra 1 year for the time to slowly disappear.

How many people live in the same area for 3-4 years? What big events happen in those years change based on age but it often has a large even in that zone. Let's look at some examples

College kids: They start anywhere from 18-21 Usually the 19-21 range because freshman year they're busy making friends and getting accustomed to college life. That means right around when they're getting their Blue belt or getting settled in. They're graduating and will probably move or have to go chase a job. Adult life hits, adult bills hit and those student loans need to be paid off. The $ a month for BJJ becomes a bigger barrier when you're getting settled, You have to move to a new job, and just like that we're down a blue belt. College students are young and healthy but they usually freeze or hold their memberships for summer and winter breaks so they take 3 years normally with all the stopping and starting.


Post Graduate: 23s-27ers They roll hard and come often I often find when people join in this age they get really into jiu jistu and put alot of time into it they'll train hard and get their blue belt in that 2-3 years range. The biggest blue belt killer here is relationships, promotions, and to a lesser extent in the twilight kids. Around this time people will start finding relationships and slow down their training. Suddenty they're a blue belt and getting it from all angles harder than before. Purple belts take it less easy on them, white belts want to beat the blue belt to prove themselves and they get frustrated that they can't come to the same classes they used to or they lose interest when they hit that grind phase again.

Oh shit I'm almost 30?: 28-34 Blue blets in this demo usually start having kids and then they disappear, The ones that don't have kids or relationships are more willing to move for jobs and be career-minded which will also eat into their class time. I think the 27-35 demographics seem to hang around more if they don't have kids or move but this is all just me going off casual observation from what I've seen in the East coast of the United States and cultures and other observations may differ.

Ouch: 35+ The older you get hte more those nagging injuries start to nag more and injuries can take a long time to recover form. While a blue belt is a great achievement, its still a short investment at this point as 2-3 years of your 35+ year old life is less part of yoru identity than if you were younger. So its easier to walk away or quit because you're a complex adult with other interests and facets of your ego as compared to those that started earlier .

So these factors you have limited control over and that part of the drop out rates isn't on coaches. So I don't think its a failure. I'd say TKD has a similar dropout rate after 1st-degree black belt which is also an intermediate rank and is earned in a similar time frame.

But someone quitting after getting hurt because of a dangerous role environment, or quitting because of stalled growth and lack of support, or quitting because the culture is toxic or a bad training environment ARE the coaches failures. So coaches shouldn't just have the "Blue belts go" attitude and try to be vigilant on members' needs and why they go. Its easy to let the sea of uncontrollable life events absolve you of responsibility and just shrug, but if we take the difficult path and try to make sure we help as many people as possible through this journey you'll find that you might hold onto more blue belts than you'd think.

At the end of the days the successes of a coach aren't people getting blue belts or black belts for that matter. Its the guy who lost 80 lbs and fixed up his diets and now he's healthy, it's the police officer that used osoto gari to defend himself during a traffic stop gone bad. Its the boy in our kids class who went from being afraid of speaking to doing his school news show and voice work, Its the letters we get from people telling us how the gym changed their life. So if someone leaves the gym and it left an impression or was a part of their journey for self improvemnt then thats probably how I'd measure sucesss.
James Jones
James Jones
Black beltVerified1309 forum posts6475/1000
5 year(s) ago
I know a lot of people think that your average blue belt can handle themselves against an untrained person. And against someone who is only slightly larger and maybe slightly more aggressive sure that should be true. But your 150 pound non aggressive blue belt is prob still going to get wrecked by some 240 pound coked out muscle head. That is just the honest truth.

I would say that to anyone that is considering quitting for whatever reason that they should at least get purple belt before quitting. Size and aggression do matter.

Purple belts should be able to handle themselves fine in any 1 on 1 situation against 99% of larger untrained opponents that are not the size of The Mountain.
Edited 5 year(s) ago
Jorgen Matsi
Jorgen Matsi
Black belt 2nd degreeVerified1772 forum posts17315/1000
5 year(s) ago
You have a major dropout between 1-3 years of practice in ANY adult hobby sport. The fact that they get a blue belt in BJJ during that time is a coincidence.

Also ACTUALLY the largest dropout is actually during the first 6 months - it's just less noticeable and normalised "expendable" dropout. Those 1-3 year people are already considered "serious" by their coaches and peers.

Statistically if you stick with a hobby for 3+ years, you are likely to stick around far longer.

And yes, those 1-3 year people probably have some useful skills. Fun fact - I got a PHONE CALL from my student from 10 years ago last month.

He was a medicine student at that time. Now a highly appreciated doctor in ER. He called me to thank me, he was able to diffuse a situation at work. Said it took 10 years for the stuff to be applicable but he did an underhooks bearhug takedown and was able to hold the person until backup arrived. Called me to tell the story.

Now F me if I don't turn this into a testimonial on our webpage ;)
Edited 5 year(s) ago
Shane Van Meer
Shane Van MeerOP
Blue beltVerified7 forum posts680/200
5 year(s) ago
The blue belt dropout rate is a very complicated issue. Let's say it takes 2-3 years to get your blue belt and let's add an extra 1 year for the time to slowly disappear. How many people live in the same area for 3-4 years? What big events happen in those years change based on age but it often has a large even in that zone. Let's look at some examples College kids: They start anywhere from 18-21 Usually the 19-21 range because freshman year they're busy making friends and getting accustomed to college life. That means right around when they're getting their Blue belt or getting settled in. They're graduating and will probably move or have to go chase a job. Adult life hits, adult bills hit and those student loans need to be paid off. The $ a month for BJJ becomes a bigger barrier when you're getting settled, You have to move to a new job, and just like that we're down a blue belt. College students are young and healthy but they usually freeze or hold their memberships for summer and winter breaks so they take 3 years normally with all the stopping and starting. Post Graduate: 23s-27ers They roll hard and come often I often find when people join in this age they get really into jiu jistu and put alot of time into it they'll train hard and get their blue belt in that 2-3 years range. The biggest blue belt killer here is relationships, promotions, and to a lesser extent in the twilight kids. Around this time people will start finding relationships and slow down their training. Suddenty they're a blue belt and getting it from all angles harder than before. Purple belts take it less easy on them, white belts want to beat the blue belt to prove themselves and they get frustrated that they can't come to the same classes they used to or they lose interest when they hit that grind phase again. Oh shit I'm almost 30?: 28-34 Blue blets in this demo usually start having kids and then they disappear, The ones that don't have kids or relationships are more willing to move for jobs and be career-minded which will also eat into their class time. I think the 27-35 demographics seem to hang around more if they don't have kids or move but this is all just me going off casual observation from what I've seen in the East coast of the United States and cultures and other observations may differ. Ouch: 35+ The older you get hte more those nagging injuries start to nag more and injuries can take a long time to recover form. While a blue belt is a great achievement, its still a short investment at this point as 2-3 years of your 35+ year old life is less part of yoru identity than if you were younger. So its easier to walk away or quit because you're a complex adult with other interests and facets of your ego as compared to those that started earlier . So these factors you have limited control over and that part of the drop out rates isn't on coaches. So I don't think its a failure. I'd say TKD has a similar dropout rate after 1st-degree black belt which is also an intermediate rank and is earned in a similar time frame. But someone quitting after getting hurt because of a dangerous role environment, or quitting because of stalled growth and lack of support, or quitting because the culture is toxic or a bad training environment ARE the coaches failures. So coaches shouldn't just have the 'Blue belts go' attitude and try to be vigilant on members' needs and why they go. Its easy to let the sea of uncontrollable life events absolve you of responsibility and just shrug, but if we take the difficult path and try to make sure we help as many people as possible through this journey you'll find that you might hold onto more blue belts than you'd think. At the end of the days the successes of a coach aren't people getting blue belts or black belts for that matter. Its the guy who lost 80 lbs and fixed up his diets and now he's healthy, it's the police officer that used osoto gari to defend himself during a traffic stop gone bad. Its the boy in our kids class who went from being afraid of speaking to doing his school news show and voice work, Its the letters we get from people telling us how the gym changed their life. So if someone leaves the gym and it left an impression or was a part of their journey for self improvemnt then thats probably how I'd measure sucesss.
Sorry I know you typed this a long time ago, I was very busy and wanted to read it fully.

Good in depth observation and sharing
Shane Van Meer
Shane Van MeerOP
Blue beltVerified7 forum posts680/200
5 year(s) ago
You have a major dropout between 1-3 years of practice in ANY adult hobby sport. The fact that they get a blue belt in BJJ during that time is a coincidence. Also ACTUALLY the largest dropout is actually during the first 6 months - it's just less noticeable and normalised 'expendable' dropout. Those 1-3 year people are already considered 'serious' by their coaches and peers. Statistically if you stick with a hobby for 3+ years, you are likely to stick around far longer. And yes, those 1-3 year people probably have some useful skills. Fun fact - I got a PHONE CALL from my student from 10 years ago last month. He was a medicine student at that time. Now a highly appreciated doctor in ER. He called me to thank me, he was able to diffuse a situation at work. Said it took 10 years for the stuff to be applicable but he did an underhooks bearhug takedown and was able to hold the person until backup arrived. Called me to tell the story. Now F me if I don't turn this into a testimonial on our webpage ;)
Very cool!!
Ben Shaw
Ben Shaw
Black belt 1st degreeVerified61 forum posts1460/1000
5 year(s) ago
blue belts dropping isn't new, and it's possible they could've just moved. I'm someone who moved away from an old gym when I was a blue belt due to a work opportunity. Anyway people's paths are unique. They can always come back and train. Quitting now or taking a break doesn't imply never training again.
Joe Cavett
Joe Cavett
Purple beltVerified433 forum posts4005/400
5 year(s) ago
I agree with the above posts about people moving away and that the average person typically doesn't participate in any hobby for longer than 2-3 years before moving on to something else. Those are two of the things I tell people when the blue belt drop out rates come up. The third is that at blue belt you really stop seeing improvement in yourself and it makes it seem like you are wasting your time to continue training. When you're a white belt, you will see a monumental improvement in the first few months and continue to see noticeable improvement for months after that. Typically after a year or so the improvements aren't as easy to see, but you get a third stripe on your belt and are motivated again. It gets harder and harder to see improvement, but you get a 4th stripe and figure you're so close to a blue belt that you might as well continue. At this point you may have gone a 6 months or a year without seeing any real improvement in your game even though your professor can likely see it. Then you get your blue belt and start thinking about it. You don't feel like you're getting better and when you consider the reality that a purple belt is another 2 years away there just isn't enough motivation to continue.

I am going to disagree with the original premise that a blue belt should be able to handle an untrained person on the street. I believe it is true that a blue belt that is actively training should be able to handle most people, but BJJ is a perishable skill. When a blue belt stops training, at what point are they not at a blue belt skill level any more? Getting a blue belt and quitting may be sufficient for self defense for a day, week, month, or year. But what about in 5 years? 10? There was an example above about someone using it after 10 years, but it was a simple take down and control situation. What if it was more complex? If you aren't training, you're skills are deteriorating. The simple act of awarding a belt shouldn't be an accomplishment for the instructor. The ability to retain a student, life events not withstanding, for the long haul is the true accomplishment for the instructor.
James Jones
James Jones
Black beltVerified1309 forum posts6475/1000
5 year(s) ago
The third is that at blue belt you really stop seeing improvement in yourself and it makes it seem like you are wasting your time to continue training. When you're a white belt, you will see a monumental improvement in the first few months and continue to see noticeable improvement for months after that. Typically after a year or so the improvements aren't as easy to see
You should always be seeing constant improvement if your training properly. If your hitting plateau's before Brown Belt your doing something wrong.

I haven't hit a single period of time that I felt like I was plateauing in the past 2 years.


*******How to plateau.

- Just go to class a couple times a week and just do what the instructor says with no deviation.

- Almost always trying to win during sparring.

- Always using your A-game.


*******How not to plateau.

- Always have a couple things that your working on from a couple different positions before you enter class. So that no matter if your on defense or offense you have something that your working on.

- Allow yourself to be worse sometimes and don't focus on winning.

- Know how to treat techniques shown in class. Not every technique is something your going to want to try to add into your game plan. Sometimes things are perfect for you, sometimes you know they are things you need to get better at but now is not the best time as your working on unrelated things that your just not able to connect all those dots together yet and it's something you will come back to at a later time. Sometimes you think you won't use something then you realize a couple months later why it's useful and how you may use it and your better prepared to see it's use for you. Sometimes you just need to edit and make a few adjustments. Sometimes what is shown just gives you an idea to do something that is completely different but that you would not thought of without thinking about the technique that was shown and how it could somehow be of use to you. Like the other day someone showed me a cool entry into a brabo choke/Darce from side control but all I could see was how to get away with turning it into an executioner that looks like a darce or north south choke in competition. lol don't be afraid to be creative and throw away things that you don't think your going to use anytime soon. Don't force techniques that don't feel right for where your at and what your trying to achieve with your style and game plan. You can only store so much information at a time especially when your first starting. As you improve and learn more things it becomes easier to be working on more and more things at once.

- Do privates that focus on improving your A Game and filling the gaps in your weaknesses. Don't just book a private with someone and let them do whatever lesson they want. Figure out what you want to work on and don't be afraid to hit the pause button and randomly just think about things during privates. Brain storm ideas off of them.

- Compete. Competing shows you what you need to work on if you don't already have an idea. And even if you do it will show you the tiniest of details that you can improve that can make a big difference.

- Not everyone can afford privates or wants to compete. You can still find a training partner that is close to your skill level and once a week try to meet up and train for 90 minutes just the 2 of you. Brain storm ideas and positions. Positional spar and hit the pause, rewind and fast forward buttons from different positions. You can mess around with ideas off Youtube doesn't matter. This will allow you to think about things in a different way that you don't get from normal open mats or training sessions in the 5 to 10 minutes you get with one person. What you will notice is if you do this once a week for 90 minutes with the same partner over a few months is that one week it will feel like your partner is getting better, than the next week it will feel like you are getting better and that cycle will keep going back and forth.

- Allow your best submission to become a secondary thought. Set it up by not even going for it. For example I love Kimuras from North South. I am not going to go for a kimura right away in competition even if I think I might can get it. I will start by getting a brabo grip for control with the far side lapel then ill grab the near side lapel and threaten trapping the wrists or going for a ninja roll. Then I can use the far side lapel to trap the forearm and threaten a lapel americana followed up by a lapel ezekiel if they pull their arm out trying to avoid the americana. Then they will get so paranoid of the lapels that they might start putting their hands and arm lower to where they just give me the Kimura that I wanted all along. This is all set up by real Primary and Secondary attacks that can finish the opponent but even if they don't you don't care because you know even if they survive those attacks your leading them right into the trap of where your even stronger at.
Basically learn how to get good at everything around what your favorite submissions are. Set them up by leading them into that direction instead of just trying to force them into that direction to start with. Attack with your C to set up your B to set up your A submission. This chain that keeps getting stronger and stronger instead of weaker and weaker. The biggest mistake is people going for their A submission first then transitioning to their B sub then transitioning to their C sub. Do it the other way around and you will see better results.
Joe Cavett
Joe Cavett
Purple beltVerified433 forum posts4005/400
5 year(s) ago
You should always be seeing constant improvement if your training properly. If your hitting plateau's before Brown Belt your doing something wrong. I haven't hit a single period of time that I felt like I was plateauing in the past 2 years.
Says the guy that is barely getting to the time frame of his training that I'm talking about. Obviously it's different for everyone, but if you are still improving at brown belt at the same rate you were improving at a white belt, your brown belt is almost certainly not legit.
Philip Dunlap
Philip Dunlap
Black belt 3rd degreeVerified1043 forum posts59560/1000
5 year(s) ago
As a coach who could care less about the business of teaching if someone quits as blue belt I don't really care one way of the other. If their goal was to get a blue belt the quit good for them, if their goal was to get a black belt and they quit good for them.

AS far as I am concerned I just focus on people that show up . I have been teaching for over 30 years and I choose to focus on the things I can succeed with teaching the people in the room and making a good time. I learned along time ago the people that stick with it and accomplish things love the training not the goals as goals are artificial by nature
Joemoplata
Joemoplata
Black belt 4th degreeVerified762 forum posts3915/1000
5 year(s) ago
As a coach who could care less about the business of teaching if someone quits as blue belt I don't really care one way of the other. If their goal was to get a blue belt the quit good for them, if their goal was to get a black belt and they quit good for them. AS far as I am concerned I just focus on people that show up . I have been teaching for over 30 years and I choose to focus on the things I can succeed with teaching the people in the room and making a good time. I learned along time ago the people that stick with it and accomplish things love the training not the goals as goals are artificial by nature
I agree with this 100%. As usual.

Many people are natural quitters. They don't think they are that way, but they are. The most common excuse I hear the most is "I lost interest". These same people are surrounded by mediocrity in their lives and are perfectly content in that mediocrity. And there is nothing wrong with that. This is the majority of the population and it's most of the people you know. And it will be most of the people in your gym.

The people that get to Black Belt in BJJ are the same people that get a PhD. That start their own business. That get a title at work that starts with "C". That become a professional athlete. Not very many people do these things.
James Jones
James Jones
Black beltVerified1309 forum posts6475/1000
5 year(s) ago
Says the guy that is barely getting to the time frame of his training that I'm talking about. Obviously it's different for everyone, but if you are still improving at brown belt at the same rate you were improving at a white belt, your brown belt is almost certainly not legit.
You learn less new techniques over time...but the learning of those said techniques has little to do with your ability to improve and not plateau.

There are plenty of brown belts that are still drastically improving. Obviously the younger they are and the more they compete probably the greater the rate of improvement they are making but it happens all the time and they are very legit.
Philip Dunlap
Philip Dunlap
Black belt 3rd degreeVerified1043 forum posts59560/1000
5 year(s) ago
The people that get to Black Belt in BJJ are the same people that get a PhD. That start their own business. That get a title at work that starts with 'C'. That become a professional athlete. Not very many people do these things.
That is it exactly. Successful people succeed because they find reasons to do things and most people find excuses to give up
Joemoplata
Joemoplata
Black belt 4th degreeVerified762 forum posts3915/1000
5 year(s) ago
That is it exactly. Successful people succeed because they find reasons to do things and most people find excuses to give up
Phil, I can't believe you would suggest that working harder at something makes you better at that thing. How dare you, sir!

Cancelled.
Philip Dunlap
Philip Dunlap
Black belt 3rd degreeVerified1043 forum posts59560/1000
5 year(s) ago
Phil, I can't believe you would suggest that working harder at something makes you better at that thing. How dare you, sir! Cancelled.
Joe I get a kick out of how many people accept failure as a natural thing.

I got thrown out of high school and ended up overseas fighting I was also doing a lot of bad stuff. That said the lessons I learned through training gave me the tools to live by and be successful in life. Once I got my head together and realized it I was basically successful in all facets of my life.

People seem to wasn't an easy comfortable life with no obstacles is is succeed. The obstacles are there to help you succeed.

I am sorry if you feel "Triggered"
Joemoplata
Joemoplata
Black belt 4th degreeVerified762 forum posts3915/1000
5 year(s) ago
Joe I get a kick out of how many people accept failure as a natural thing. I got thrown out of high school and ended up overseas fighting I was also doing a lot of bad stuff. That said the lessons I learned through training gave me the tools to live by and be successful in life. Once I got my head together and realized it I was basically successful in all facets of my life. People seem to wasn't an easy comfortable life with no obstacles is is succeed. The obstacles are there to help you succeed. I am sorry if you feel 'Triggered'
We can keep that culture on the mats, at least. Which is what we're all doing, right?

Right?
Felipe Grez
Felipe Grez
Black belt 3rd degreeVerified120 forum posts3110/1000
5 year(s) ago
As a coach who could care less about the business of teaching if someone quits as blue belt I don't really care one way of the other. If their goal was to get a blue belt the quit good for them, if their goal was to get a black belt and they quit good for them. AS far as I am concerned I just focus on people that show up . I have been teaching for over 30 years and I choose to focus on the things I can succeed with teaching the people in the room and making a good time. I learned along time ago the people that stick with it and accomplish things love the training not the goals as goals are artificial by nature
Well said! everyone trains Jiu Jitsu for different reasons and all we can do is help our students as best we can, every time we step on the mat!
Harley Smith
Harley Smith
Brown beltVerified65 forum posts920/700
5 year(s) ago
In my limited experience, white belts are worse than blue. I think the difference is most white belts are not around long enough for you to remember them or realize they are gone. Blue belts have been training long enough you become accustomed to seeing them, and you notice more when they are not there anymore.

Alot of the other factors are mentioned above.

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